Who Really Voted for President Obama in 2008 and 2012?

Abstract

The authors use simple bilinear regression on statewide exit poll data to gauge the popularity of President Barack Obama in election years 2008 and 2012 among voters in four age groups (18 to 29 year-olds; 30 to 44 year-olds; 45 to 64 year-olds; and voters 65 and older) and three income groups (under $50,000; $50,000 to $100,000; and voters earning more than $100,000).  While there was little change in his popularity among voters in all age groups, Obama’s popularity with the poorest group of voters (those earning less than $50,000) took a noticeable hit in 2012.