Mayoral Party Affiliation and Violent Crime Rates in America's Most Populated Cities

Abstract

The authors examine whether 2019 violent crime rates (in general) and murder, rape, robbery, and aggravated assault rates (in particular) are related to the party affiliation of a city’s mayor. First, America’s 100 largest cities are divided into three groups adjusting for the size of the city’s population – top twenty, the next thirty most populated, and then the next fifty most populated.  For the top 20 cities, there are surprisingly no discernable differences in average murder, rape, or aggravated assault rates in cities run by Democrats relative to those run by Republicans.  In cities ranked 21 – 50 or 51 – 100, violent crime rates (with the exception of rape) are significantly higher in cities with Democratic mayors.  The authors caution that association does not imply causation.