Did Trump's Tweet Disparaging Trudeau Impact Canada-U.S. Border Crossings?

Abstract

The authors examine the impact of President Donald Trump’s June 9, 2018 tweet disparaging Group of 7 (G7) summit host Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Canada – United States border crossings over the Peace Bridge.  The Peace Bridge is one of the busiest international border crossings in North America that connects Fort Erie, Ontario and Buffalo, New York.  A regression analysis of daily automobile crossings between January 1, 2017 and December 31, 2019 (using seasonality dummy variables and controlled for year fixed effects) revealed a statistically discernible reduction in the number of crossings (both east into the United States and, to a lesser extent, west into Canada) seven, fourteen, and even thirty days after the tweet.  Words have consequences.