Modeling the Spread of Infectious Diseases Within a Social Environment

Abstract

The rapid spread and devastating effect of the COVID-19 pandemic made infectious disease mitigation a concern of the whole world. Many countries implemented different policies in order to mitigate the spread of the disease, with varying degrees of success. Each policy/measure was an attempt to find a balance between feasibility and effectiveness. I created a simulation to model a viral outbreak in a population with moving and interacting  individuals. Using this model,  I tested the impact of various disease prevention or mitigation policies at incremental degrees of strictness. I found that each method displayed an exponential relationship between the thoroughness of its implementation and its effectiveness. The model shows that any approach to mitigate infectious disease spread in densely populated regions should be enforced fully to significantly deter disease spread.