KESSYM: A stochastic orbital debris model for evaluation of Kessler Syndrome risks and mitigations
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47611/jsrhs.v12i1.4013Keywords:
space debris, Kessler Syndrome, low Earth orbit, space junk, risk mitigation, simulation, satellitesAbstract
Mankind’s productive use of the low Earth orbit (LEO), from 400-2,000km in altitude, is at risk from increasing counts of debris objects and derelict satellites, which pose collision risks to active spacecraft. Of particular concern to space agencies and industry is the Kessler Syndrome (KS), which is the term for a hypothetical collapse scenario in which collisions between debris and satellites cause more debris, causing a destructive cascade that leaves the orbital environment unusable. In order to better understand this KS tipping point, the KESSYM model has been developed as a stochastic simulation of all the objects in the LEO. This model provides a forecast for the evolution of the orbital environment into the future, including the expected year, if any, that the KS collapse occurs. KESSYM allows for certain risks, such as war or terrorism in space, solar flares, or unconstrained exploitation of the space resources to be analyzed alongside KS mitigation measures, such as the hardening of spacecraft against debris, avoidance of collisions, removal of debris, and effective regulation. The conclusions drawn from the KESSYM simulation are that the KS is almost an inevitability within 200-250 years of today’s date, but can be delayed or avoided altogether if action is taken.
Downloads
References or Bibliography
Anz-Meador, P. D., Opiela, J. N., Shoots, D., & Liou, J. C. (2018). History of on-orbit satellite fragmentations (No. JSC-E-DAA-TN62909).
Boley, A. C., & Byers, M. (2021). Satellite mega-constellations create risks in Low Earth Orbit, the atmosphere and on Earth. Scientific Reports, 11(1), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-89909-7
Bradley, A. M., & Wein, L. M. (2009). Space debris: Assessing risk and responsibility. Advances in Space Research, 43(9), 1372-1390. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2009.02.006
Brettle, H., Lewis, H., Harris, T., & Lindsay, M. Assessing Debris Removal Services for Large Constellations.
Diserens, S. (2022). Space debris modelling in the NewSpace era: how changes in the use of the space environment will impact the space debris environment and how it is modelled (Doctoral dissertation, University of Southampton).
European Space Agency. ESA’s Annual Space Environment Report. Ref GEN-DB-LOG-00288-OPS-SD. At https://www.sdo.esoc.esa.int/environment_report/Space_Environment_Report_latest.pdf. (2022).
Horstmann, A., Manis, A., Braun, V., Matney, M., Vavrin, A., Gates, D., ... & Lemmens, S. (2021). Flux Comparison of MASTER-8 and ORDEM 3.1 Modelled Space Debris Population. In 8th European Conference on Space Debris.
Kessler, D. J., & Cour‐Palais, B. G. (1978). Collision frequency of artificial satellites: The creation of a debris belt. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, 83(A6), 2637-2646. https://doi.org/10.1029/JA083iA06p02637
Kessler, D. J. (1991). Collisional cascading: The limits of population growth in low earth orbit. Advances in Space research, 11(12), 63-66. https://doi.org/10.1016/0273-1177(91)90543-S
Kessler, Donald J., and Loftus Jr, J. P. (1995). Orbital debris as an energy management problem. Advances in Space Research, 16(11), 139-144. https://doi.org/10.1016/0273-1177(95)98764-F
Lewis, H. G. (2020a). Evaluation of debris mitigation options for a large constellation. Journal of Space Safety Engineering, 7(3), 192-197. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsse.2020.06.007
Lewis, H. G. (2020b). Understanding long-term orbital debris population dynamics. Journal of Space Safety Engineering, 7(3), 164-170. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsse.2020.06.006
Liou, J. C., & Johnson, N. L. (2006). Risks in space from orbiting debris. Science, 311(5759), 340-341. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1121337
Lloyd, W. F. (1833). Two lectures on the checks to population: Delivered before the University of Oxford, in Michaelmas Term 1832. JH Parker.
Massey, R., Lucatello, S., & Benvenuti, P. (2020). The challenge of satellite megaconstellations. Nature astronomy, 4(11), 1022-1023. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41550-020-01224-9
Reiland, N., Rosengren, A. J., Malhotra, R., & Bombardelli, C. (2021). Assessing and minimizing collisions in satellite mega-constellations. Advances in Space Research, 67(11), 3755-3774. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.asr.2021.01.010
Rossi, A., Petit, A., & McKnight, D. (2020). Short-term space safety analysis of LEO constellations and clusters. Acta Astronautica, 175, 476-483. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2020.06.016
Sdunnus, H. et al. (2004). Comparison of debris flux models. Advances in Space Research, 34(5), 1000-1005.
United States Space Command. Satellite Catalogue. https://www.space-track.org. (Accessed 19 November 2022) (2022).
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
Copyright (c) 2023 Julia Hudson
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Copyright holder(s) granted JSR a perpetual, non-exclusive license to distriute & display this article.
