Predicting Whether Inflation Will Remain in the U.S. after the Covid-19 Pandemic
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.47611/jsrhs.v11i2.3025Keywords:
Macroeconomics, Phillips Curve, Inflation, UnemploymentAbstract
This paper focuses on the possibility of inflation occurring in the United States in the foreseeable future. Inflation, the progressive increase in the price of goods and services over time in an economy, is affected by demand and supply. If the demand for goods and services exceeds the supply of those goods and services, prices naturally increase and rise in inflation. While many have attempted to predict inflation through various methods, no one has been able to guarantee a result as demand and supply are unstable variables. However, using the vulnerable, weak covid environment, the relationship between the CPI (Consumer Price Index) and unemployment rates was used to assemble Philips Curves.
Downloads
References or Bibliography
Amadeo, K. (2022, June 3). What is the current U.S. unemployment rate? The Balance. Retrieved June 6, 2022, from https://www.thebalance.com/current-u-s-unemployment-rate-statistics-and-news-3305733#:~:text=The%20unemployment%20rate%20skyrocketed%20in,to%20the%20COVID%2D19%20pandemic.&text=Overall%2C%20the%20number%20of%20unemployed,higher%20than%20pre%2Dpandemic%20levels
The Economist Newspaper. (n.d.). America's inflation Spike begins. The Economist. Retrieved June 6, 2022, from https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/04/13/americas-inflation-spike-begins
The Economist Newspaper. (n.d.). Consumer-price inflation in America jumps up to 4.2%. The Economist. Retrieved June 6, 2022, from https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/05/13/consumer-price-inflation-in-america-jumps-up-to-42
The Economist Newspaper. (n.d.). How is omicron affecting the global economic recovery? The Economist. Retrieved June 6, 2022, from https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/how-is-omicron-affecting-the-global-economic-recovery/21807361
The Economist Newspaper. (n.d.). Why the used-car market is sending American inflation soaring. The Economist. Retrieved June 6, 2022, from https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2021/06/15/why-the-used-car-market-is-sending-american-inflation-soaring
Engemann, K. M. (2021, December 9). What is the phillips curve (and why has it flattened)? Saint Louis Fed Eagle. Retrieved June 6, 2022, from https://www.stlouisfed.org/open-vault/2020/january/what-is-phillips-curve-why-flattened
European Central Bank. (2021, October 28). Monetary policy statement (with Q&A). European Central Bank. Retrieved June 6, 2022, from https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2021/html/ecb.is211028~939f22970b.en.html
Salisu, A. A., & Isah, K. O. (2018, January 8). Predicting US inflation: Evidence from a new approach. Economic Modelling. Retrieved June 6, 2022, from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0264999317313111
Turner, H. C., Lauer, J. A., Tran, B. X., Teerawattananon, Y., & Jit, M. (2019, June 14). Adjusting for inflation and currency changes within health economic studies. Value in Health. Retrieved June 6, 2022, from https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1098301519321497
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (n.d.). Consumer price index data quality: How accurate is the U.S. CPI? : Beyond the numbers. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved June 6, 2022, from https://www.bls.gov/opub/btn/volume-1/consumer-price-index-data-quality-how-accurate-is-the-us-cpi.htm#:~:text=The%20report%20asserted%20that%20the,the%20addition%20of%20new%20goods
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. (n.d.). CPI Home. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Retrieved June 6, 2022, from https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
[email protected], & Michael Dotsey & Shigeru Fujita & Tom Stark. (1970, January 1). Do Phillips curves conditionally help to forecast inflation?, by Micha. International Journal of Central Banking. Retrieved June 6, 2022, from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ijc/ijcjou/y2018q3a2.html
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
Copyright (c) 2022 Alex Lee, Andrea Bernini
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Copyright holder(s) granted JSR a perpetual, non-exclusive license to distriute & display this article.
