The Effectiveness of US Foreign Policies in Diminishing the Diplomatic Power of the PRC (1993-2020)

Abstract

Following the market liberalization of the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the United States has sought to diminish the PRC’s ability to influence the US-backed international order. This paper examines the foreign policy strategies employed by the last four complete US presidential administrations against the change in the diplomatic power of the PRC from 1993-2020 to find which strategy was most effective in achieving this objective. Diplomatic power is measured through the PRC’s foreign direct investment (FDI) excluding the US, International Monetary Fund (IMF) voting share, and United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) voting coincidence between the PRC and the US. Change in FDI shows the Trump Administration trade war failed as the PRC’s FDI excluding the US increased even when protectionist policies were imposed, as the PRC was able to pivot trade to other nations due to the unilateral nature of the policies. Change in IMF voting share and the PRC’s formation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank show that the Obama Administration’s attempt to dissuade the PRC into rewriting institutions failed; the Obama Administration achieved advancements on mutual issues of climate, nuclear non-proliferation, and maritime security that supported norms set by the US. UNGA voting coincidence did not show meaningful correlation with US strategy. A successful US foreign policy is one that cooperates on concrete initiatives but not in a flawed manner by giving into PRC demands; when engaging in competition, the US must do so with a coalition of allies to check against PRC diplomatic and trade flexibility.