The Effect of Temperature on the Spread of COVID-19

Abstract

This study analyzes the findings about the spread of COVID-19 in regions of varying temperatures. This paper will use the analysis of public data to conclude how impactful temperature is in determining the spread of COVID-19. In addition, this paper will shed light on some trends and some historical relevance to other pandemics similar in genetic makeup and growth. There have been numerous claims that higher temperatures will cause COVID-19 to diminish quickly and die out during the summer months. Other viruses like the flu and influenza are more common, and they display signs of seasonality. For example, the flu occurs in the Fall and Winter months which is why people get vaccines or flu shots in the preceding months. The conclusion about temperature’s significance could also highlight the stage of severity of the virus. If the cases, start to drop for example, one could conclude that the virus is past its peak and will die out soon. Several states from the United States were monitored for their daily cases and temperature before being averaged into three-day intervals to depict a smoother trend. Both variables are public and accessible to all. The states were divided into colder states(New York, Pennsylvania, and Illinois) and hotter states(Texas, California, and Georgia). The results varied and displayed different trends. The colder states seemed to have gone past their peak and displayed a downward parabolic form. The temperature and cases displayed an inversely proportional relationship. The hotter states showed a constantly increasing case count with the graph showing a spike around the same time. The hotter states displayed an exponential trend and it is hard to predict when and how much they will peak. These two differing trends suggest that the effect temperature can have is not obvious across numerous areas. Therefore, temperature does not appear as a significantly impactful determinant in the growth of COVID-19.